Well what an exciting week that was, with 3 games, the entire playoff picture is settled, making week 14 very very boring.
Just Giver: Won Week 13 - With a Wild Iguana loss, and dominating in the Division Wins tie breaker has won the division, making their annual week 14 battle, well, pointless.
Wild Iguanas: Lost Week 13 - Sat back all day, in great position, even with Trent throwing 4 tds ignoring Larry Johnson. Feeling safe with an easy 10 from Andre Johnson, watched his division championship dreams evaporate when Johnson caught one ball for 9 yards. The Iguanas should have the Wild Card locked up.
Team in a Box: Lost Week 13- Had the world by the balls. He could have really screwed up the whole play off picture. The Furious Fighting Figs weren't going to have any of that. Led by Ladell Betts and Santana Moss, he dashed the Box's playoff dreams by handing the loss that TIAB couldn't have to make the post season. With Just Giver winning, and TIAB losing to the Iguanas in week 11, has eliminated himself from playoff contention.
Suddenly the most exciting races in the league are for the draft picks for next year. Grid Iron leads the race for the number one pick in the draft with 3 wins, Filthy Whores is in second with 4 wins. Then there is a hodge-podge of teams bunched up 5 wins. These include The Stunners, Motown Madness, Mad Blue Bombers, and the fallen from grace, SoCal Bears. The Furious Fighting Figs can add to the mess with a loss, as they sit at 6 wins on the year. Team in a Box is sitting comfortably in the 8th drafting position.
After this week the draft order for the top 8 will be set. The last 4 will be set upon completion of the Championship Tournament.
Tuesday, December 5, 2006
Monday, December 4, 2006
Week 14 Start Em / Sit Em
Week 14. Make or Break week for Fantasy Football. Many of you are in the playoffs. Many are out, and some, like me in some leagues, need a win this week to get in. This week is very important to many people this week. So without further adieu, lets get on with the predictions.
Thursday's Game:
Cle @ Pit
Start 'Em Cle
K. Winslow, TE
B. Edwards, WR
Sit 'Em Cle
C. Frye, QB - Questionable/Out Wrist
Backup QB Guy, QB - Questionable, Talent
R. Droughns, RB
J. Wright, RB
D. Northcutt, WR
On Thursday Night the Browns roll into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. When they get there they'll be playing without starting quarterback Charlie Frye. He injured his wrist last week vs. the Chiefs. He hasn't practiced all week, and with the short week, he probably won't play. Frye's backup, Derek Andersen would take the helm of the Brown's offense. Derek himself is not a useful start in fantasy leagues, but after his comeback win against the Chiefs, some of his supporting cast may be useful. The Steelers have one of the better rush defenses in the league so that makes the running backs unusable. Also, Droughns and Wright will continue to split time, negating each others value. One place that could be harvested for fantasy value, are the Cleveland Wide Receivers and Tight Ends. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow make excellent plays this week against a soft Pittsburgh pass defense. If there is a way to beat the Steeler's it is through the air. The benefit the Browns have is that they have a new Quarterback getting his second action of the year. Damon Huard and Tony Romo come to mind as successful quarterbacks that took off with a week of practice. The Steelers haven't been giving up many points to quarterbacks, but they have been giving up plenty of points to wide outs and tight ends all year. It doesn't help Pittsburgh's cause, with Troy Palomalu out for the game.
Start 'Em Pit
W. Parker, RB
S. Holmes, WR
H. Miller, TE
Sit 'Em Pit
B. Roethlesberger, QB
H. Ward, WR -Out Knee
N. Washington, WR
Willie Parker had been trying to establish himself as a stud running back in fantasy football. Owners began to pick up on one little flaw in his game. He was only productive at home. That streak came to an end last week versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Parker put up poor numbers at home against a relatively strong rush defense. This week Parker shouldn't have the problem with the strong defense. Cleveland is more known for its pass defense than it's run defense. Larry Johnson ran effectively last week against the Browns. He didn't score a TD, but that was more because Trent Green was tossing TDs from all over the field. LJ scores most of his TDs inside the 10 yard line. Look for Parker to put up good numbers this week. As for the Steelers passing game, stay far away from it. Hines Ward is out for the game, after undergoing knee surgery last week. His replacements aren't too special. Santonio Holmes may be the best option if you need a replacement for Ward. Washington may be the one that gets the most looks, but he has established that he has a problem catching the ball. Heath Miller is a must start in all tight end mandatory league, especially with Ward out as Big Ben needs a safety valve. Speaking of Big Ben, He is a quarterback you definitely want to stay away from. He has been brutal this year. He is wildly inconsistent, and throws far too many interceptions to be relied upon from a fantasy perspective. Cleveland can be passed against, but I would bet they try and refocus on the run this week.
Sunday's Games:
Thursday's Game:
Cle @ Pit
Start 'Em Cle
K. Winslow, TE
B. Edwards, WR
Sit 'Em Cle
C. Frye, QB - Questionable/Out Wrist
Backup QB Guy, QB - Questionable, Talent
R. Droughns, RB
J. Wright, RB
D. Northcutt, WR
On Thursday Night the Browns roll into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. When they get there they'll be playing without starting quarterback Charlie Frye. He injured his wrist last week vs. the Chiefs. He hasn't practiced all week, and with the short week, he probably won't play. Frye's backup, Derek Andersen would take the helm of the Brown's offense. Derek himself is not a useful start in fantasy leagues, but after his comeback win against the Chiefs, some of his supporting cast may be useful. The Steelers have one of the better rush defenses in the league so that makes the running backs unusable. Also, Droughns and Wright will continue to split time, negating each others value. One place that could be harvested for fantasy value, are the Cleveland Wide Receivers and Tight Ends. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow make excellent plays this week against a soft Pittsburgh pass defense. If there is a way to beat the Steeler's it is through the air. The benefit the Browns have is that they have a new Quarterback getting his second action of the year. Damon Huard and Tony Romo come to mind as successful quarterbacks that took off with a week of practice. The Steelers haven't been giving up many points to quarterbacks, but they have been giving up plenty of points to wide outs and tight ends all year. It doesn't help Pittsburgh's cause, with Troy Palomalu out for the game.
Start 'Em Pit
W. Parker, RB
S. Holmes, WR
H. Miller, TE
Sit 'Em Pit
B. Roethlesberger, QB
H. Ward, WR -Out Knee
N. Washington, WR
Willie Parker had been trying to establish himself as a stud running back in fantasy football. Owners began to pick up on one little flaw in his game. He was only productive at home. That streak came to an end last week versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Parker put up poor numbers at home against a relatively strong rush defense. This week Parker shouldn't have the problem with the strong defense. Cleveland is more known for its pass defense than it's run defense. Larry Johnson ran effectively last week against the Browns. He didn't score a TD, but that was more because Trent Green was tossing TDs from all over the field. LJ scores most of his TDs inside the 10 yard line. Look for Parker to put up good numbers this week. As for the Steelers passing game, stay far away from it. Hines Ward is out for the game, after undergoing knee surgery last week. His replacements aren't too special. Santonio Holmes may be the best option if you need a replacement for Ward. Washington may be the one that gets the most looks, but he has established that he has a problem catching the ball. Heath Miller is a must start in all tight end mandatory league, especially with Ward out as Big Ben needs a safety valve. Speaking of Big Ben, He is a quarterback you definitely want to stay away from. He has been brutal this year. He is wildly inconsistent, and throws far too many interceptions to be relied upon from a fantasy perspective. Cleveland can be passed against, but I would bet they try and refocus on the run this week.
Sunday's Games:
Eikey's Used Car Lot
It is this time of year, that fantasy players have ridden their draft picks as far as they can. Now it's time to trade some of them, and look at a few players they should have either never picked up, or look to trade in before they fail completely. Welcome to my used car lot. This is obviously inspired by the lead off Gremlin, and how his lack of drivability may have cost me a chance at the fantasy playoffs this year.
David Carr, QB Houston Texans.
We all knew that David Carr and his offensive line sucked. That isn't news, or even new. We had a three year track record to work off for this. The change this year was that Andre Johnson was a top five receiver in the league for most of the year. That meant that Carr was at least serviceable enough to get Johnson a ball or two. In most games he was getting him eight or nine. Johnson was an every week start based on these events. Then Andre drove his 'David' Carr into Oakland. David broke down faster than a Pinto when you need to get your wife to the emergency room to deliver your kid. Johnson turned in a lovely one catch, nine yard performance. I don't know about your league, but in my league that counted for a brutal zero points. This stung even more needing a meager 10 points out of him to get into the playoffs. Adding further injury to insult, Marty Booker and Chris Chambers were sitting on my bench already with the points needed to guarantee my place in the playoffs.
All that said, what can we expect looking forward from the Gremlin and Johnson? Can they be trusted in your fantasy playoffs? How much of last weeks performance can be attributed to Oakland's better than advertised passing defense?
I'm going to go out on a limb, and suggest that they have one patch job left. Then the whole machine will fall apart and they will have to send the old Gremlin to the junk yard for another year. In week 14, the Texans get the Titans at home. The last time these two tangled, Carr threw at Johnson 19 times, completing 9. Johnson had 78 yards, and a touchdown. If he gets close to these numbers he should help teams get into their playoffs. After that.....
The Titans might be enough to send this Carr to the scrap heap. In week 15 the Texans get to drive out to Foxboro, and meet the Patriots. The Pats defense may be enough to blow their transmission, and flatten their tires. Perhaps even pour some sugar in their gas tank. Following the Patriots, the Texans get to push their broken down Gremlin back home and wait for the Colts to come in and dismantle them in week 16. The previous meeting between the Colts and the Texans, Carr threw at Johnson six times, resulting in 4 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. Those are hardly championship winning numbers.
In summary, even with Andre Johnson driving the "David" Carr, it's a broken down model. You might get one more week of mileage out of it, and then your best bet is to park it for the year. Perhaps you can even spend all spring and summer working on Andre Johnson, and build him up like I have been doing for the last two - three years. This year he finally paid off - for most of the season. We'll have to see what upgrades Gary Kubiak throws on this team in the off season. If he does some serious work on the front end, and if Dominick Davis comes back to help the rear end, The Texans car might be one to look at again. Even if it is a "David" model, or they roll out the new "Quinn 1.0".
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was a consensus first round pick in many drafts last fall. He was the "Rookie of the Year" in 2005, and showed all the flashes you hoped from a first round fantasy guy. Most importantly, he was a Cadillac. Or was he?
Of all the first round busts this year, (and there have been plenty). Cadillac has been right up there, front and center in many people's minds. He has performed so well this year, many people have changed his nickname from "Cadillac" to "Yugo", or "Escort" or any of the other fabulous clunkers that we have grown to know and love over the years. Paul Charcian of Fantasy Football Weekly on KFAN first used the "Yugo" term, so for now I'm going with the "Escort" name.
Escort has been brutal this season. He only has two 100 yard rushing games, and one touchdown on the year. So far his rushing total is a mere 724 yards, averaging out to 60 per game.
Some of that effort can attributed to his features. He was working with a banged up front end for much of the year. His engine Chrissy Simms was brutal early, and then broke down completely when he ruptured his spleen. The replacement parts haven't been helpful either. Bruce Gradkowski looked promising early. However, once teams got some film on him, he has looked filthy as of late. This is allowing teams to shut down the run again. When Williams does get a chance to redeem some value, Escort gets replaced with the 'Mack Truck' known as Mike Alstott at the goal line. Alstott is one of the best players in the league to snipe touchdowns. That is, when Gradkowski can sputter his offense down the field that close.
What does this mean for Escort in the off season and in 2007? When the Escort gets pulled into the garage for the year for work, what can we expect to get rebuilt? Mike Alstott is constantly pondering retirement. This move allow would help Williams' value heading into 2007. Some reports out of Tampa also have Jon Gruden leaving Tampa this year. This move would cause some chaos in the garage, and may or may not help Williams value. First we have to see if it even happens. As with any beauty, especially Cadillacs, all the value starts with the front end. If Tampa doesn't do any work on its aging offensive line, then Williams really doesn't stand much of a chance to regain the moniker 'Cadillac' into 2007.
Brian "The Rabbit" Westbrook
Not every one remembers the old Volkswagen Rabbit, ( I hear they are bringing it back). For the sake of this article I'm going to drag out the nickname of Brian Westbrook. The Rabbit. He has been one of the most productive running backs in fantasy football this year. However, he has also been one of the more fragile ones in recent history. This year he has battled nagging injuries, and in the last few years he has broken down completely. Last year when Donovan McNabb got hurt, the Old Rabbit died completely. What does this year hold for our little beast?
When McNabb went down in week 11 Westbrook picked up his second game with 20 rushing attempts. The first came the week before against the Redskins following their week 9 bye. Week 12 was his third 20 carry game in a row. There was concern at this point that the old Rabbit would break down in Week 13 against the swarming Carolina defense. Julius Peppers and his aggressive defensive friends would be keying on Westbrook and daring Jeff Garcia to beat them, which coincidentally, he did. Westbrook had 16 carries for 68 yards, and 6 catches for 56 yards, and a touchdown. It looks like he made it through that game without too much damage.
Looking ahead into the fantasy playoffs, will he be helpful? Will he stay healthy? Week 14 Westbrook rolls into Washington, which should lend to putting up good fantasy numbers for owners. Then the wheels come off this crazy thing. Assuming Westbrook manages to stay healthy, the Eagles and Westbrook then roll into the Meadowlands, and then head down to Dallas for weeks 15 and 16. Both of those teams are not known for allowing running backs to score very many points against them. The only saving grace is that the Giants may have utterly collapsed by then, and the Eagles could still be playing for a playoff spot. If this is this case, then Westbrook is still a safe start. The game in Dallas, he is a very shaky start regardless. Dallas has a very solid run defense.
Looking ahead to 2007, if The Rabbit can get to the garage in decent shape, without getting too banged up, he will be in great positition to be a top 10 running back in fantasy drafts. The reason he hasn't been up to this point is that he hasn't proven that he can stay healthy. If he plays 14-15 games this year, with his nagging knee injury all year, I'll anoint him a legit top 10 back. I was high on him into this year, and watching most of the consensus top 10 backs bust out this year, I'll put my trust in a Rabbit before I put it in a Cadillac.
Honorable Mention:
Cleo Lemon - He's just a backup in Miami, but he did get mop-up duty on Thanksgiving day. I just thought it would be nice to mention one of the unmentionables, for a change.
David Carr, QB Houston Texans.
We all knew that David Carr and his offensive line sucked. That isn't news, or even new. We had a three year track record to work off for this. The change this year was that Andre Johnson was a top five receiver in the league for most of the year. That meant that Carr was at least serviceable enough to get Johnson a ball or two. In most games he was getting him eight or nine. Johnson was an every week start based on these events. Then Andre drove his 'David' Carr into Oakland. David broke down faster than a Pinto when you need to get your wife to the emergency room to deliver your kid. Johnson turned in a lovely one catch, nine yard performance. I don't know about your league, but in my league that counted for a brutal zero points. This stung even more needing a meager 10 points out of him to get into the playoffs. Adding further injury to insult, Marty Booker and Chris Chambers were sitting on my bench already with the points needed to guarantee my place in the playoffs.
All that said, what can we expect looking forward from the Gremlin and Johnson? Can they be trusted in your fantasy playoffs? How much of last weeks performance can be attributed to Oakland's better than advertised passing defense?
I'm going to go out on a limb, and suggest that they have one patch job left. Then the whole machine will fall apart and they will have to send the old Gremlin to the junk yard for another year. In week 14, the Texans get the Titans at home. The last time these two tangled, Carr threw at Johnson 19 times, completing 9. Johnson had 78 yards, and a touchdown. If he gets close to these numbers he should help teams get into their playoffs. After that.....
The Titans might be enough to send this Carr to the scrap heap. In week 15 the Texans get to drive out to Foxboro, and meet the Patriots. The Pats defense may be enough to blow their transmission, and flatten their tires. Perhaps even pour some sugar in their gas tank. Following the Patriots, the Texans get to push their broken down Gremlin back home and wait for the Colts to come in and dismantle them in week 16. The previous meeting between the Colts and the Texans, Carr threw at Johnson six times, resulting in 4 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. Those are hardly championship winning numbers.
In summary, even with Andre Johnson driving the "David" Carr, it's a broken down model. You might get one more week of mileage out of it, and then your best bet is to park it for the year. Perhaps you can even spend all spring and summer working on Andre Johnson, and build him up like I have been doing for the last two - three years. This year he finally paid off - for most of the season. We'll have to see what upgrades Gary Kubiak throws on this team in the off season. If he does some serious work on the front end, and if Dominick Davis comes back to help the rear end, The Texans car might be one to look at again. Even if it is a "David" model, or they roll out the new "Quinn 1.0".
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was a consensus first round pick in many drafts last fall. He was the "Rookie of the Year" in 2005, and showed all the flashes you hoped from a first round fantasy guy. Most importantly, he was a Cadillac. Or was he?
Of all the first round busts this year, (and there have been plenty). Cadillac has been right up there, front and center in many people's minds. He has performed so well this year, many people have changed his nickname from "Cadillac" to "Yugo", or "Escort" or any of the other fabulous clunkers that we have grown to know and love over the years. Paul Charcian of Fantasy Football Weekly on KFAN first used the "Yugo" term, so for now I'm going with the "Escort" name.
Escort has been brutal this season. He only has two 100 yard rushing games, and one touchdown on the year. So far his rushing total is a mere 724 yards, averaging out to 60 per game.
Some of that effort can attributed to his features. He was working with a banged up front end for much of the year. His engine Chrissy Simms was brutal early, and then broke down completely when he ruptured his spleen. The replacement parts haven't been helpful either. Bruce Gradkowski looked promising early. However, once teams got some film on him, he has looked filthy as of late. This is allowing teams to shut down the run again. When Williams does get a chance to redeem some value, Escort gets replaced with the 'Mack Truck' known as Mike Alstott at the goal line. Alstott is one of the best players in the league to snipe touchdowns. That is, when Gradkowski can sputter his offense down the field that close.
What does this mean for Escort in the off season and in 2007? When the Escort gets pulled into the garage for the year for work, what can we expect to get rebuilt? Mike Alstott is constantly pondering retirement. This move allow would help Williams' value heading into 2007. Some reports out of Tampa also have Jon Gruden leaving Tampa this year. This move would cause some chaos in the garage, and may or may not help Williams value. First we have to see if it even happens. As with any beauty, especially Cadillacs, all the value starts with the front end. If Tampa doesn't do any work on its aging offensive line, then Williams really doesn't stand much of a chance to regain the moniker 'Cadillac' into 2007.
Brian "The Rabbit" Westbrook
Not every one remembers the old Volkswagen Rabbit, ( I hear they are bringing it back). For the sake of this article I'm going to drag out the nickname of Brian Westbrook. The Rabbit. He has been one of the most productive running backs in fantasy football this year. However, he has also been one of the more fragile ones in recent history. This year he has battled nagging injuries, and in the last few years he has broken down completely. Last year when Donovan McNabb got hurt, the Old Rabbit died completely. What does this year hold for our little beast?
When McNabb went down in week 11 Westbrook picked up his second game with 20 rushing attempts. The first came the week before against the Redskins following their week 9 bye. Week 12 was his third 20 carry game in a row. There was concern at this point that the old Rabbit would break down in Week 13 against the swarming Carolina defense. Julius Peppers and his aggressive defensive friends would be keying on Westbrook and daring Jeff Garcia to beat them, which coincidentally, he did. Westbrook had 16 carries for 68 yards, and 6 catches for 56 yards, and a touchdown. It looks like he made it through that game without too much damage.
Looking ahead into the fantasy playoffs, will he be helpful? Will he stay healthy? Week 14 Westbrook rolls into Washington, which should lend to putting up good fantasy numbers for owners. Then the wheels come off this crazy thing. Assuming Westbrook manages to stay healthy, the Eagles and Westbrook then roll into the Meadowlands, and then head down to Dallas for weeks 15 and 16. Both of those teams are not known for allowing running backs to score very many points against them. The only saving grace is that the Giants may have utterly collapsed by then, and the Eagles could still be playing for a playoff spot. If this is this case, then Westbrook is still a safe start. The game in Dallas, he is a very shaky start regardless. Dallas has a very solid run defense.
Looking ahead to 2007, if The Rabbit can get to the garage in decent shape, without getting too banged up, he will be in great positition to be a top 10 running back in fantasy drafts. The reason he hasn't been up to this point is that he hasn't proven that he can stay healthy. If he plays 14-15 games this year, with his nagging knee injury all year, I'll anoint him a legit top 10 back. I was high on him into this year, and watching most of the consensus top 10 backs bust out this year, I'll put my trust in a Rabbit before I put it in a Cadillac.
Honorable Mention:
Cleo Lemon - He's just a backup in Miami, but he did get mop-up duty on Thanksgiving day. I just thought it would be nice to mention one of the unmentionables, for a change.
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