Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Start 'em, Sit 'em, Thanksgiving Day.

In this topic, I'm going to attempt to go game by game and let you know who to start from each game. This Turkey Day we are treated to 3 games that have very tasty fantasy match ups. So without further ado, on to the match ups!

Game 1: Miami @ Detroit 12:30PM ET.

Start 'Em Miami (2.5-5)
Ronnie Brown RB (5)
Randy McMichael TE (3)
Wes Welker WR (3)
Chris Chambers WR (2.6)
Joey Harrington QB (3)

Ronnie Brown - The Detroit Lions defense is still injury riddled, and is coming off of a game where they allowed the abysmal Edgerrin James to nearly get 100 yards. They are averaging giving up about 16 fantasy points per game. Brown is a must start, since the Dolphins finally realized that the secret to winning is to not let Joey Harrington pass 62 times a game.

Randy McMichael - He is simply a must start in all TE mandatory leagues, usually because there aren't many better options out there. While he hasn't scored a TD yet this year, only the Bengals and the 49ers have given up more tight end TDs than the Lions have. McMichael may be a good check down option for Harrington.

Wes Welker - Welker has been the leading receiver for the Dolphins this year. He leads the team with 74 receptions and 512 yards. He has become a favorite target of Harrington this year. As the number two target in Miami, Chambers tends to draw the better CB of the defenses, leaving Welker open with the better coverages. This week Welker will most likely draw something not called Dre Bly. I like his chances.

Chris Chambers - Chambers is the number 1 WR on the depth chart in Miami, and the WR that everyone expected big things out of this year, myself included. I have been relatively unimpressed with his production this year. That said, I'm tempted to start him if you got him this week, but he's definitely sittable if you have better options. He will most likely draw Dre Bly, a true shutdown corner in the NFL. Chambers is still the favorite target in the Miami passing offense. Getting thrown at roughly 11 times per game. Start him, but do it only if other options are in trouble. For example, Marques Colston is hurt on my team, so I'm kinda stuck.

Joey Heatherton, er I mean Harrington - It really pains me to say that... The only reason you are looking to start Harrington this week is because he's playing on a Thursday, and because a few other top flight QBs are either hurt or looking so shaky. Harrington has been good enough to put up fantasy numbers lately, so if you are in a pickle, you can start him, and feel good about it, going up against a soft Detroit secondary. If McNabb doesn't blow out his knee, and Green, Brooks, Bulger, Plummer, Hasslebeck, and Eli Manning all look shaky you probably wouldn't need to look elsewhere for a QB. But with those developments, here you are, looking for points from this guy.

Sit 'Em Miami (1-2.5)
Marty Booker WR (1)
Derek Hagan WR (1)
Olindo Mare K (1)

Marty Booker - I'm guessing there just won't be enough balls to go around after Welker, Chambers, Brown, and McMichael get theirs. Plus I'm just not that fond of number 3 WRs on sub par offenses.

Derek Hagan - See Marty Booker. I feel even less love for number 4 WRs on sub par offenses.

Olindo Mare - His best days are far behind him. You probably have a better kicker anyway.


Start 'Em Detroit (2.5-5)
Roy Williams WR (4)
Jon Kitna QB (3)
Jason Hanson K (3)

Roy Williams - He is a freak wide receiver on a bad team. Williams is the Offense of the Lions. He is averaging 10 looks per game from Kitna. At home he has been doing quite well, averaging 110 yards per game. Three of his four TDs have come at home as well. Williams is a must start this week. Miami's defense may be stiff, But the anemic Vikings offense just put up over 250 passing yards on Miami's defense, most of those would look to go to Williams.

Jon Kitna - Kitna is averaging 260 yards and at least 1 TD per game this year. Quietly, those are good enough stats for most leagues. Kitna is getting bashed in most circles because he's playing for the Lions. If he was putting up those numbers on the Cowboys, he would be applauded. As I stated above, Miami's defense just got done allowing the Vikings to pass all over them. With the Mike 'The Mad Scientist' Martz as the teams Offensive Coordinator, I would expect the Lions to do alot of passing in this game. Expect good numbers from him in this one. However, if your league punishes ints, you may want to also count on at least one of those as well.

Jason Hanson - I hate kickers. But Hanson is one you can actually count on. He's been averaging about 7 points per game depending on your scoring system. Miami actually gives up 1-2 FGs per game.

Sit em Detroit (1-2.5)
Kevin Jones (2)
Mike Furrey (2)
RB Backup (1)

Kevin Jones - KJ is on the injury report with a sprained ankle. I wouldn't start him even if he were healthy against a stout Miami rushing defense.

Mike Furrey - The number 2 WR in Detroit has been productive in past weeks. If you don't have any better options, you may give him a look. He gets 8 looks per game, roughly 5 catches per game, and has 3 TDs on the year. Chances are you have better options than Mike Furrey.

RB Backup - If you aren't starting a talented Kevin Jones when healthy, why would you start his luggage carrier? Don't worry about it, if it's Arlen Harris or Shawn Bryson, or Aveion Cason. Move along, nothing to see here.


Game 2: Tampa Bay at Dallas 4:15PM ET

Start 'Em Tampa Bay (2.5-5)
Joey Galloway WR (3)
Anthony Becht (2.6)

Joey Galloway - Galloway is the number one receiving option of QB Gradkowski. He gets the majority of the looks, even though he will draw the Cowboys number one CB, and probably a double team, from Roy Williams, Galloway makes the best start of the Buccaneers and the receiving corps. Although don't expect too much out of him this week.

Anthony Becht - Alex Smith is usually the Buccaneers number one TE, however, this week he is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Enter Anthony Becht stage right. The Cowboys are susceptable to being passed upon by the tight end. They have given up 424 yards, and 4 TDs to TEs on the year. With the defense keying on Galloway and Clayton, things should open up for Becht. If you have better options, go with them. However, Becht makes a very sneaky sleeper pick this week.

Sit 'Em Tampa Bay (1-2.5)
Carnell Williams RB (2)
Michael Clayton WR (1)
Bruce Gradkowski QB (1)
Alex Smith TE (1) (Doubtful - Ankle)
Matt Bryant K (2)

Carnell Williams - "Cadillac" has been nothing more than a Ford Escort this season. He has only topped the 100 yard mark twice this year. He doesn't look to do it against a very stiff Dallas defense, that will key on the run and force the rookie QB to beat them. Williams was most likely your number 1 pick last fall, but until he gets off the blocks, sit the Escort.

Michael Clayton - No WR has been more disappointing since his rookie year than Clayton. He has done nothing this year to warrant being on a fantasy roster, let alone in your starting lineup this week.

Bruce Gradkowski - If the Dallas Cowboy defense can effectively shut down Peyton Manning and the Colts offense, what makes you think that this rookie QB can waltz into the Big D, and light up the Cowboys? Nothing, that's what. Gradkowski has been surprising this year in his efficency, but he won't do anything special this week. Look elsewhere for a QB for your team.

Alex Smith - Injured players don't get started. Simple. Especially ones in this game.

Matt Bryant - He is a reliable kicker, fairly accuate, and has a decent leg. He exhibited this with his 62 yard bomb against Philly. However, Dallas is only giving up 5.8 fantasy points to kickers this year. You can probably find more production from someone else in the league.


Start 'Em Dallas (2.5-5)
Terrell Owens WR (4)
Terry Glenn WR (3)
Jason Witten TE (3)
Tony Romo QB (3)
Julius Jones RB (2.6)
Marion Barber RB (2.7)

Terrell Owens - "The Player". Terrell has become a must start player with the emergence of Tony Romo. Owens must have bullied Romo into throwing him the ball more, something he couldn't do when Bledsoe was the QB in Dallas. Whatever the excuse is Terrell Owens is simply a player you can't sit down anymore based on performance.

Terry Glenn - Glenn used to be the Number One option in Dallas, with Bledsoe as QB. Then Romo took over, and he started to vanish. A knee injury later and Glenn basically disappeared. He re-emerged last week against the Colts to put up some acceptable numbers, just good enough to make me take him out of the 'sit 'em' category against a weak Buccaneers secondary. Normally you probably wouldn't start Glenn.

Jason Witten - Witten has emerged as Romo's number two target after Owens. When Bledsoe was the QB Witten had been non-existant in the Cowboy's offense. Now he is enjoying renewed success as Romo's safety blanket. This week it also helps that the Buccaneers are giving up 50 yards a week to TEs, and have allowed a TD every other week or so. I see Witten getting into the End Zone at least once this game.

Tony Romo - Romo has been a surprise this season since taking over for Bledsoe in the 2nd half of the Monday Night Giants game. He looked absolutely brutal in that game, but since then he has shown flashes of brilliance. He has been able to keep The Player happy, and win some games in Big D, keeping the fans happy. Romo has also been able to put up decent numbers keeping fantasy players happy. Excepting last week against the Colts, Romo had been averaging over 275 yards per game and was good for at least 1, if not 2 TDs. There are no signs here to show that you can't expect at least 275 and 2 against the Buccaneers on Turkey Day.

Julius Jones and Marion Barber - I am hesisitant to start either one of these backs, but if I had to, I would lean to Barber before Jones, simply because he gets the TDs. Jones is shakey because the Bucs D doesn't allow many rushing yards, and they have only given up 5 rushing TDs on the year. That said, Parcells does like to run, so it does make it hard to sit these guys, but temper your expectations. I would guess that Barber has the better Fantasy game than Jones.

Sit 'Em Dallas (1-2.5)
Patrick Crayton WR (2)
Mike Vanderjagt K (2)

Patrick Crayton - He could be a viable option if Glenn suffers a setback with his 'bone on bone' knee injury. As it stands now he is the third WR, and the fourth or fifth option in the passing game. It doesn't bode well for fantasy production.

Make Vanderjagt - Once the most accurate kicker in history, now he holds the nickname Mike Vandershank. Chances are one or two more misses could have him on the next bus back to Canada looking for work as a hockey puck. Don't start him until he can show that he can actually make a kick or two in a row without an announcer saying 'WIDE RIGHT!'.


Game 3: Denver at Kansas City 8:00PM ET

Start 'Em Denver (2.5-5)
Javon Walker WR (3.5)
Jason Elam K (3)

Javon Walker - Javon Walker is the Alpha and the Omega of the Denver passing game, and that isn't saying much. He is far too talented to be sat down in leagues any more, after a very frustrating start to the season. Jake Plummer has already been put on notice that he will be benched in week 13 (*you heard it here first) so there isn't a gaurantee that Plummer will make it through this game in tact. Should that happen, look for Jay Cutler to come in and provide some spark to the passing game, and Javon Walker to be the direct beneficiary of that spark.

Jason Elam - A very accurate kicker, and Denver settles for a lot of Field Goals. You should start him with confidence. I have even noticed him available on the waiver wire in a few of my leagues. Kansas City also gives up 7.5 fantasy points a game to kickers, so expect 2 FGs or so from him, with the extra points.

Denver Sit 'Em (1-2.5)
Jake Plummer QB (1)
All Denver RBs (2.4)
Rod Smith WR (2.5) - Probable Ankle

Jake Plummer - The bell finally tolled for ole Jake the Snake. He will be benched in Week 13. There are no gaurantees he will even get to finish this game. That is why you are to bench him for this game. He will be completely unpredictable. Jake could be like a little girl and go pout and play like, well the crap he's played like all year, or he could go out and light it up like he did last year. I'll go with this year's track record and guess he'll play like crap against a decent KC defense in Kansas City.

All Denver RBs - NOTHING is more frustrating than the Running Back situation in Denver. NOTHING. Not getting stood up by Jessica Simpson, Not getting burned by a half point on your last leg of 5 team parlay. NOTHING. Reports out of Denver could be Tatum Bell could have both feet amputated, and he would start and run for 150 and 2 scores, sitting comfortably on your bench. Mike Bell could be the logical start for those in fantasy land, and he'll be a last minute deactivation, leaving you with a big fat zero. If you have a gun to your head and someone says, chose a Denver RB, or the plague......... Take the plague.

Rod Smith - The venerable one should be a reliable target this week, if he were healthy, and if Jake Plummer cared, and if he had done anything this week to prove that he should be on a roster, let alone in a lineup. Leave him on your bench for a better option this week.

Start 'Em Kansas City (2.5-5)
Larry Johnson RB (5)
Sammy Parker WR (2.5)
Lawrence Tynes K (2.5)

Larry Johnson - LJ is a BEAST. I'd start him against the '85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, and pretty much anyone and everyone. You can't sit him. Ever. If he gets stuffed on the ground, he'll get his through the air. LJ was making a case to being the best RB in fantasy football until that one guy named Tomlinson went nutty and scored something like 19 touchdowns in 5 games or whatever it was he did.... perhaps you've heard of him?

Sammy Parker - Parker makes a very sneaky sleeper pick this week in deep leagues only because he'll draw the CB not named Champ Bailey. Teams have been using and abuse Darrent Williams all year. While Williams has made some plays, he's missed more than he's made. Look for Parker to be the go-to guy while Gonzalez isn't 100%, and Kennison draws Bailey.

Lawrence Tynes - 'Eh. He's a kicker going up against a stout defense that bends but doesn't break. Look for plenty of field goal oppurtunities this week. Tynes will probably miss one of them, but those are the breaks.

Sit 'Em Kansas City (1-2.5)
Trent Green QB (2)
Tony Gonzalez TE (2) Probable - Shoulder
Eddie Kennison WR (1)

Trent Green - He's still recovering from his brutal concussion he took back in week one. Denver's pass defense is still pretty nice, and with Larry Johnson looking to carry the rock plenty, don't expect too much. Look for Green to be a care taker one more week to get his legs and his head back in the game. He might do just enough to win the game for the Chiefs, but if you need 300 yards and 3 TDs, you won't get it from Green this week. Especially with Gonzo not 100% with his shoulder injury.

Tony Gonzalez - Gonzo is hurt with a shoulder injury he suffered 2 weeks ago, he's going to be a trooper and play tonight. Even if he were 100% healthy I wouldn't expect too much out of him, as his numbers against Denver have been brutal recently. He has little more than 100 yards total, in his last *FIVE* games versus the Broncos. If you have to have a TE, go ahead and start him, just don't expect much.

Eddie Kennison - Look for Kennison to be shut down by Shutdown corner Champ Bailey. Even if Kennison wouldn't be drawing Bailey, I wouldn't like his chances. Kennison has proven this year that he really can't catch. Eddie has been thrown to 61 times this year, only catching 31 of them, for 521 yards and 2 TDs. Definately look elsewhere for production this week.


Well that does it for the Thursday games. I'll be back tomarrow to see how I did with my predictions. I hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving day festivities, as well as your fantasy football, especially if any of my advice helps you win your matchups this week.

1 comment:

Luke said...

I like what you have done. I see how this is going to take up alot of your time from doing other things *wink* just kidding...Good Job thou, and Happy Thanksgiving!