Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Start 'Em Sit 'Em Week 13

Here we go again! Week 13. Game by Game who to start, who to sit analysis of your NFL action.

Remember, there are now Thursday night games every week from now until the end of the year. I'll try to get that Thursday night game done every Wednesday, and the rest of the games done at least a day before hand.

On with the fun!

Thursday night:
Bal @ Cin

Start 'Em Balt
S. McNair, QB
J. Lewis, RB
M. Clayton, WR
T. Heap, TE

Sit 'Em Balt
D. Mason, WR
D. Wilcox, TE

Since the firing of Jim Fassel the Baltimore offense has really taken off, scoring no less than 24 points per game. Jamal Lewis has also shown a resurgence in production in this time. Which bodes well this week against the Bengals who are among the league worst in giving up fantasy points to running backs. Look for Jamal to continue his hot streak on Thursday night. The most promising aspect of this offensive turn around is that Steve McNair has been able to find a receiver other than safety valve Todd Heap. Mark Clayton has emerged in recent weeks as a legitimate threat in fantasy circles to score, week in, week out. The only downside is that with the emergence of Clayton, and the constant reliance on Heap, is that reduces the venerable one, Derrick Mason, and his role in the offense. He still show flashes and scores points, but if you have better options this week, look to use them. Daniel Wilcox is a back up tight end, that should only be used when Heap is actually out, rather than just pretending to be injured. Heap is one of the leading offenders of the 'Questionable on Wednesday, but plays'. If you have Heap and Wilcox, you have to watch the pregame deactivations for which to start. If Heap is healthy, Wilcox has little fantasy value.

Start 'Em Cincy
C. Palmer, QB
C. Johnson, WR
TJ Championship, WR

Sit 'Em Cincy
R. Johnson, RB
C. Henry, WR
R. Kelly, TE (not the rapper)

Cincinnati has been one of the more unpredictable teams this year. As of late they have been one of the more flashy offensive teams on the field. Chad Johnson has been unbelievable the last three weeks, while being shut out of the end zone last week against Cleveland. His receiver friends picked up the slack in the touchdown department, with Chris Henry scoring twice, and TJ Whosyourmama scoring once. All three of the receivers put up nice yardage against the Browns, with Palmer leading the way. This week they get a very stiff defense in the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is very good against the run, which makes you leave Running Rudi on the bench this week. In fact, Baltimore is the best in the NFL in giving up fantasy points to running backs. They only give up an average of 8.25 points per game, and have only surrendered 2 rushing tds all year. If you are going to beat the Ravens you have to do it through the air. The Ravens have been a little more lenient through the air. They have given up 9 tds to Wide Receivers so far, through 11 games. While the odds aren't good that CJ, or TJ will score, they are too good to leave on the bench. Last week I was questioning TJ's health, but after last week's performance, he looks fine. Palmer is an iffy start against that vaunted Baltimore Defense, but if I'm starting two WRs, you may as well give their QB a shot as well. If you got fed up with Palmer earlier in the year, and were able to track down a capable back up, you may want to give him a look as well. Cincy doesn't really have a tight end to speak of, so I won't. Chris Henry doesn't get a nod this week, because of the Baltimore defense, not from any lack of his involvement in the Bengal offense. Look at your roster if your options warrant taking a chance on him. On a Sunday game, you could flip a coin on him, with the Thursday night game, I'd leave him out and take the chance on someone else.

Sunday Games: (Note: due to the weather system going through the Michigan area this weekend, I'm getting my butt kicked by migraines. I'm trying to write through it, but concentration is an issue. The picks are solid, I just don't have the focus today (Saturday) to write up the explanations. Hopefully they will all be in before you need to set your lineups on Sunday morning. I apologize to those that may be waiting for the explanations.)

Arz @ StL
Start 'Em Arz:
M. Leinart, QB
L. Fitzgerald, WR
A. Boldin, WR

Sit 'Em Arz:
E. James, RB
L. Pope, TE

This week the Cardinals get the Rams. One of the worst fantasy rush defenses in the league. The Rams give up, on average, 150 rushing yards and a TD a game. So you may be asking why do I have James on the Bench? Easy. I don't trust him, and his line. I don't think he's going to get to 100 yards. The Cards are a pass first team with Leinart and his boys, Fitzgerald and Boldin. The Rams actually have a decent pass defense, and may stimey the Cardinal passing game. Denny Green would be smart to run run run all day, however, I just don't think their line can get the job done. It'll be an interesting day indeed. If you are one of those that took James in the first round, kept him, and have been itching to use him, go ahead this week, this will be the last time all year it will be a decent play.

Start 'Em StL:
T. Holt, WR
S. Jackson, RB
I. Bruce, WR
M. Bulger, QB

Sit 'Em StL:
None

This week I feel that the Rams will snap out of their funk. The Rams have been decent on offense the last few weeks. Steven Jackson has been great and unbenchable the last few weeks. He has been catching plenty of balls out of the backfield, helping in the passing game. The biggest news was that Marc Bulger was suffering from bruised ribs the last few ribs, which was probably the reason his stats were suffering. Enter the Cardinals the defense, the cure for what ails ya. The Cardinals defense is brutal. It allowed Brad Freaking Johnson to throw 3 tds last week, and pretend he was a real quarterback. Steven Jackson should have a field day, Torry Holt should snap out of his funk and put up numbers the resemble the top 5 WR that he is, and even Issac Bruce should be serviceable. Start your top flight Rams with confidence this week.

Atl @ Was
Start 'Em Atl:
M. Vick, QB
W. Dunn, RB
A. Crumpler, TE

Sit 'Em Atl:
All Falcons WRs
J. Norwood, RB

Contrary to popular belief, (my belief included), is that Michael Vick is a serviceable fantasy football quarterback. He doesn't pass worth two beans in a pot, but he runs better than most of the top fantasy runners, including a running back on his team that everyone loves, named Warrick Dunn. Last week he put up 160 yards on the ground, which in most leagues is worth 4 passing tds. This week, the Redskins aren't that great of a defense, and Vick alone can probably rip them up. Win the game? Fantasy players don't care about that. "Playoffs?!!? Who said anything about Playoffs?!? I just hope we can win a game!" - Jim Mora. While Mora also said that Vick may be a 'Coach Killer', on a fantasy team, he may be able to carry your team to the playoffs. Helping Vick carry your team to the playoffs this week will be Warrick Dunn, and Alge Crumpler. Dunn is the only legitimate running back on this team. Norwood doesn't get the carries to warrant fantasy consideration. While he may tear one off to make you say 'Why didn't I start him!' He isn't consistent enough to trust. Crumpler is the only receiver on the Falcons team that can actually catch a Michael Vick pass, and is a weekly 'must start'. You leave the Falcon receivers on the bench, and perhaps the waiver wire, as was exhibited last week, they simply can't catch. Don't give them a chance to drop your chance at winning this week.

Start 'Em Was:
L. Betts, RB
C. Cooley, TE
S. Moss, WR

Sit 'Em Was:
J. Campbell, QB
TJ Duckett, RB
B. Lloyd, WR

Betts, good running option. Atl is weak rushing Defense.
Cooley has become Campbell's safety valve.
Moss is a play-maker that is a great play every week he's healthy.
Campbell just isn't good enough yet to warrant fantasy consideration.
Duckett and Lloyd, backups that don't need consideration.

Det @ N E
Start 'Em Det:
R. Williams, WR

Sit 'Em Det:
K. Jones, RB
J. Kitna, QB
M. Furrey, WR

Williams is the real playmaker on this team. Berrian caught good numbers against the Pats.
Jones is sore, and I wouldn't start him 100% against the Pats, Don't start him today.
Kitna has been brutal lately, In a bad weather day don't expect much from him.
Furrey, I just can't expect much from him.

Start 'Em N E:
T. Brady, QB
C. Dillion, RB
L. Maroney, RB
R. Caldwell, WR
B. Watson, TE

Sit 'Em N E:
Other WRs

Start them all, Detroit is bad on defense. It should be a Tom Brady surgical dissection.
The Patriots WRs other than Reche Caldwell are unstartable, due to the way Brady spreads it around.

Ind @ Ten
Start 'Em Ind:
P. Manning, QB
J. Addai, RB
R. Wayne, WR
M. Harrison, WR
B. Utecht, TE

Sit 'Em Ind:
D. Rhodes, RB
D. Clark, TE - OUT injury

Colts are good. Start them all.
Rhodes is out as the relevant RB in Indy, leave him on your bench.

Start 'Em Ten:
T. Henry, RB
V. Young, QB (?)

Sit 'Em Ten:
B. Scaife, TE
C. Brown, RB
L. White, RB
All Titan WRs

Tennesee is a hard team to read. If you can avoid them, I would.
Henry should have a good game against a bad rushing defense in the Colts. But he has a healthy track record of going off against great defenses, and disappearing against soft defenses. I'd just stay away from all Titans this week.

KC @ Cle
Start 'Em KC:
L. Johnson, RBeast
T. Green, QB
T. Gonzalez, TE
S. Parker, WR

Sit 'Em KC:
E. Kennison, WR
M. Bennett, RB
J. Dunn, TE

This should be a blow out.
You know to start Johnson every week.
Green should be back to form, and looking to take advantage of a defense that Carson Palmer ripped up last week.
Gonzo is healthy enough this week, and will reclaim his spot as the teams leading receiver.
Parker is, again, a sneaky play. He is the receiver that can catch on this team.

Start 'Em Cle:
K. Winslow, TE

Sit 'Em Cle:
B. Edwards, WR
C. Frye, QB
R. Droughns, RB
J. Wright, RB
D. Northcutt, WR

K. Winslow is a must start TE every week.
B. Edwards is usually a good start. Reports are that he may be punished in this game for his tirade against Charlie Frye last week. Even if the Coach doesn't punish him, Frye might. I'd leave him on the bench this week if you can, and see how this shakes out.
The rest of the team is worthless.
Droughns is rumored to be benched this week in favor of J. Wright. They are fed up with Ruebens bad stats in his tenure, and they want to get a look at their rookies. Leave your Brown backs on the bench until a clear cut leader emerges.

Min @ Chi
Start 'Em Min:
C. Taylor, RB

Sit 'Em Min:
B. Johnson, QB
M. Robinson, WR
J. Wiggins, TE
T. Taylor, WR
T. Williamson, WR

If I were a lazier man I would copy and past last weeks explanation from New England explanation, and use it this week. However I'm not that lazy. The sad thing is, the game plan doesn't change much. Chester Taylor is still the focal point of the Vikings offense. The Bears can still be beaten with the run, and Brad Johnson isn't going to beat anyone beside the Cardinals through the air. You start Chester Taylor, and sit the Vikings passing game this week. If they do something this week against the Bears, then you can use them next week, and for the rest of your season into the fantasy playoffs.

Start 'Em Chi:
T. Jones, RB (?)
B. Berrian, WR

Sit 'Em Chi:
R. Grossman, QB
M. Muhammad, WR
D. Clark, TE
C. Benson, RB

In this game, the Bears are looking at square in the eye of the number one rushing defense in the league. Thomas Jones doesn't make a great start this week, but the Bears could be a little more stubborn than most in the run game. This week Pat Williams may be limited which helps his possibilities, if you have a better option go with it. Cedric Benson is a bench. He opened his big yap again in the Chicago media and didn't lend himself well to his team. Chances are he'll not see much of the field this week, due to his comments. Bernard Berrian is the only play in the passing game from the Bears this week. The Vikings have shown they are brutal against the pass, however, Grossman has shown as of late that he isn't much better. Berrian is an option because he is the deep threat. The weather in Chicago Sunday is expected to be terrible, so expect a low scoring game. Bench your Bears if you got them, especially if you have better options.

NYJ @ GB
Start 'Em NYJ:
L. Coles, WR
J. Cotcherty, WR
C. Pennington, QB
L. Washington, RB
C. Baker, TE

Sit 'Em NYJ:
K. Barlow, RB

Green Bay is the worst pass defense in the league.
Start all of your Jets passing attackers with confidence.
The running back situation is a mess with Houston returning from injury. Leon Washington should be the clear cut starter, and should put up good numbers, but don't be surprised if this falls through.
Barlow tends to be the Goal line back, mucking things up further.

Start 'Em GB:
B. Favre, QB
D. Driver, WR
G. Jennings, WR
A. Green, RB

Sit 'Em GB:
N. Herron, RB
B. Franks, TE

The Jets aren't very good in pass defense either, and Number 4 is Number 4.
Jennings' ankle has healed. Driver and Jennings give Favre good down field targets to sling to.
A. Green makes a good play, as the Jets defense isn't too special, especially if the weather in the Meadowlands is a factor.
B. Franks has been reduced to a blocking TE and shouldn't be on rosters.

SD @ Buf
Start 'Em SD:
L. Tomlinson, RBeast
P. Rivers, QB
A. Gates, TE

Sit 'Em SD:
E. Parker, WR
K. McCardell, WR
M. Turner, RB - Out



Start 'Em Buf:
W. McGahee, RB
L. Evans, WR

Sit 'Em Buf:
JP Losman, QB
R. Parish, WR
A. Thomas, RB




SF @ NO
Start 'Em SF:
F. Gore, RB
A. Bryant, WR

Sit 'Em SF:
V. Davis, TE
A. Smith, QB
A. Battle, WR





Start 'Em NO:
D. Brees, QB
D. Henderson, WR
J. Horn, WR
D. McAlister, RB

Sit 'Em NO:
R. Bush, RB
M. Colston, WR -Ankle
T. Copper, WR -Ankle





Hou @ Oak
Start 'Em Hou:
A. Johnson, WR

Sit 'Em Hou:
D. Carr, QB
W. Lundy, RB
S. Gado, RB
E. Moulds, WR
O. Daniels, TE





Start 'Em Oak:
None

Sit 'Em Oak:
A. Brooks, QB
R. Moss, WR
J. Fargas, RB





Jax @ Mia
Start 'Em Jax:
M. Jones-Drew, RB

Sit 'Em Jax:
D. Garrard, QB
E. Willford, WR
M. Jones, WR
F. Taylor, WR
G. Wrightster, TE
M. Lewis, TE





Start 'Em Mia:
J. Harrington, QB
S. Morris, RB
M. Booker, WR
W. Welker, WR
M. McMichael, TE

Sit 'Em Mia:
C. Chambers, WR
R. Brown, RB - Out, Hand





Dal @ NYG
Start 'Em Dal:
T. Romo, QB
T. Owens, WR
M. Barber, RB
J, Witten, TE

Sit 'Em Dal:
J. Jones, RB
T. Glenn, WR
P. Crayton, WR





Start 'Em NYG:
T. Barber, RB
J. Shockey, TE

Sit 'Em NYG:
E. Manning, QB
P. Burress, WR
B. Jacobs, RB
T. Carter, WR





TB @ Pit
Start 'Em TB:
None

Sit 'Em TB:
C. Williams, RB
J. Galloway, WR
M. Clayton, WR
etc.




Start 'Em Pit:
W. Parker, RB
H. Miller, TE

Sit 'Em Pit:
B. Roethlesberger, QB
H. Ward, WR - OUT Knee Surgery
N. Washington, WR




Sea @ Den
Start 'Em Sea:
S. Alexander, RB
M. Hassleback, QB
D. Jackson, WR
D. Branch, WR

Sit 'Em Sea:
N. Burleson, WR
J. Stevens, TE
M. Morris, RB





Start 'Em Den:
J. Walker, WR

Sit 'Em Den:
J. Cutler, QB
J. Plummer, QB
T. Bell, RB
M. Bell, RB
R. Smith, WR




Monday Night
Car @ Phi
Start 'Em Car:
S. Smith, WR
D. Williams, RB

Sit 'Em Car:
J. Delhomme, QB
K. Johnson, WR
D. Foster, RB
K. Magnum, TE





Start 'Em Phi:
B. Westbrook, RB
D. Stallworth, WR
L. Smith, TE

Sit 'Em Phi:
J. Garcia, QB
R. Brown, WR
H. Baskett, WR



Explanations to follow soon....

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Hey Eikey, nice blog.

Did you see my piece on why McNair may still be a fraud?

Check it out on UP in one of those threads we are going back and forth in.